Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence

I just donated money to the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. I would recommend that if you share my beliefs, do the same.

2nd Amendment

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

That's it. That's the 2nd Amendment. Does it mean that everyone has the freedom to have guns or does it mean that the military is allowed to have guns? What about the part (you know two out of the first three words) about being "well regulated." How can the framers of the Constitution anticipate the type of guns that are now readily available? 

People use those words as the end of any debate. Rational thought? No need when you have the text of the 2nd amendment that ensures the right to "keep and bear Arms. It is hard to have an intelligent conversation about someone when they are stuck on words written 200+ years ago. If you strongly believe in the 2nd amendment then you might just want to stop any and all conversation about the subject. Your mind is made up and nothing can convince you otherwise.

I think that the 2nd Amendment is ambiguous and not something that applies (or should apply) to assault weapons. Also, certain types of gun control (waiting periods, background checks, etc) make sense and still should be able to safely fit the qualifications of the 2nd amendment. Just because one might believe in the the 2nd amendment doesn't mean one can't also believe in some forms of gun control. It is both exciting and depressing to read about how we have technology to make safer guns. Why can't we have that conversation? Why do the words quoted at the beginning of the article mean we can't work on technology that makes sure that only the owner of the gun can fire the gun? Nothing in that article suggests to me that the Federal government is going to be taking away your guns. 

Also, are Conservatives and gun fanatics ok with mentally ill people to have guns? If you aren't against any gun control at all then you could just as easily use some of the same arguments to say that their rights to bear Arms shouldn't be infringed. Where do you draw the line? Should a 5 year old have a gun? It seems like a ridiculous argument, but then again the NRA president thinks that more guns will help solve the problem of gun violence. Of course. The Onion might have framed the debate best by replacing guns with Gorillas in "Gorilla Sales Skyrocket After Latest Gorilla Attack." Does that argument make any less sense then some of the NRA's public statements?

I'm not saying that isn't ok to like guns. You can and you can support the 2nd Amendment. You can support as little regulations as possible. However, if you do you are also supporting gun violence. Sorry, but you can't have it both ways. Just like you can't expect less taxes, a strong defense, no changes to Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security and a balanced budget. There isn't a coincidence that the *gun homicide rate per 100,000 in America is 3.2%, while in other countries like Canada (0.1%), Australia (0.1%), Japan (0%) and Norway (0.5%). Americans own more guns and have "no federal regulations banning the semiautomatic assault weapons or large capacity ammo magazines often used in mass shootings."

*Stats are from the January 14th, 2013 Time Magazine.

We have more guns than other countries and we have more gun violence. We have an organization (the NRA) that refuses to have an open conversation about guns and a political party that (Republicans) that will not stand up to them. Also, we have voters that like the access to these type of guns and the very limited regulations. Again, you can think that way, but please stop saying you are "praying for the victims" when something like Virginia Tech or Sandy Hook happens. You are part of the problem. The price to pay to living in a country that is obsessed with protecting the 2nd Amendment are mass murders like this. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look at other ways of preventing mass murders, but to take any gun control off the table means we aren't addressing the main problem. 

I'm tired of all of it. With M being pregnant, I don't like living in country that allows this violence to happen without any solutions even being discussed. I'm planning on donating money to the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and will match any contributions (up to a certain amount) that readers of this blog also make. I'm looking for help and hope that people will no longer turn a blind eye to something that is a fixable problem.

How to choose a college?

For most of your early life decisions are made for you. As a child you aren't able to pick where you live, go to school, etc. In my case I had loving parents that made the correct decisions (besides giving me a Game Boy or putting a TV in my room) about my life. Now of course there are certain decisions that you can influence, but for the most part they are minor. That all changes when you graduate from high school and choose what college to attend. 

For me, I can remember that decision making process clearly. My parents provided advice when asked, but mostly let me chart my own course with that decision. The autonomy with that decision was something that was extremely motivating. I ended up applying to 7 schools as far north Wabash College in Indiana as far east as the University of Richmond and as far south/west as LSU. Out of all of those I picked Miami University, and I haven't regretting that decision once.

The reasons why I picked Miami was that I wanted a new experience in a new part of the country and Miami fit all my other qualifications: commitment to undergraduate education, college town, mid-sized university. One thing I hadn't considered when looking at schools, but lucked into by choosing Miami  was Miami's strong study abroad program. Like many of my classmates, I took advantage of this program, and I am thankful to have spent a summer in Asia. 

Picking Miami changed my life and could possibly be the biggest, most important decision I made when you consider the butterfly effect. That was the first time my life hit a fork in the road, and if I hadn't gone to Miami there is almost zero chance I would end up in Minneapolis, etc, etc. 

Why am I thinking about this at this current moment? I just read this great article from Frank Bruni on How to Choose a College? When you think about how big of a decision picking a school is shouldn't this article be required reading? The below passage from the article is something that I fully believe is true:

"If you're among the lucky who can factor more than cost and proximity into where you decide to go, college is a ticket to an adventure beyond the parameters of what you've experienced so far. It's a passport to the far side of what you already know. It's a chance to be challenged, not coddled. To be provoked, not pacified."

Rasheed Sulaimon

It has become almost conventional wisdom within the Duke community that Rasheed Sulaimon is a "better fit" for Duke than Austin Rivers. Obviously there is some disappointment from last year's team that started off well, beat UNC in one of the greatest games of all time and then become one of only six teams to lose to a 15th seed in the NCAA tournament. A lot of the team's shortcomings were blamed on Rivers. He seemed like a natural target since he was very highly recruited, the son of an NBA player and overall carried himself as a jerk. There was somewhat of a "over promise / under deliver" aspect that left a bitter taste with Rivers.

Before we get to Sulaimon, lets first look at this year's Duke team. Nobody will argue this team is playing much better than last year, but if you needed any proof the top 5 returning players (Plumlee, Curry, Kelly, Cook and Thornton) all have better FG%s than last year. Mason Plumlee in particular has gone from a *curse word to possibly the best player in the country. Because of the entire team's improvement this team has gone undefeated through the nation's toughest schedule.

*I would often yell Plumlee after a turnover, missed free throw or stupid defensive gamble.I can only assume my wife thought Plumlee was some type of curse word. Really I just thought Mason was Josh McRoberts 2.0 and would never live up to the hype.

So the team is playing much better and has had an amazing start to the season. With that start people have looked for a reason why. Is it because Mason Plumlee worked on his free throw shooting? Is it because Quinn Cook has made huge leap? Is it because Ryan Kelly improved as a defender? All of those are factors, but a lot of people seem to be pointing soley to trading out Sulaimon for Rivers.

The thing is that I don't disagree that the switch has helped the team. I tolerated Rivers, but love watching Sulaimon play. Give me even 2.5 more years of watching him play and he might reach Nolan Smith/Jon Scheyer/Shane Battier level for me. However, I find it confusing that people automatically point to Sulaimon being a better fit or more of a Duke type player. What about this? Sulaimon is just a better player than Rivers.

Let's compare.

Sulaimon was the 12th ranked recruit compared to Rivers being 3rd, so while everyone assume Rivers was going to be a NBA level talent, it isn't like people thought poorly of Sulaimon. And then when you look at actual play you see that Sulaimon has a better FG% (44% to 43%), better FT% (84% to 66%) and better 3PT% (40% to 36%). He also has more rebounds and assists per per game, while averaging almost a turnover less. And if stats aren't your thing then just watch both of them play and see who you think is a better defender. So yes he is a better fit and this team does have much better chemistry. However, I think it is also clear that Sulaimon is just a much better player than Rivers. That combined with the improvement from everyone else has made this team a legitimate threat to win the national title. Now can we get back to wondering if Jabari Parker is enough of a Duke-type player?

12/12/12 - 1 year anniversary

It seems like a decent amount of people are noting the uniqueness of today's date of 12/12/12, but for me I can't help but think of 12/12/11. One year ago today I started my current job at Limited Brands. It has been a long and fun year, and if you received my Christmas card and letter then you would have seen the big highlights. Some of the lesser highlights is just how different life is right now on a daily basis. I still generally feel the same (happy), tell the same stories (sometimes repeated) and drink the same whiskey. Still the little nuances have added up to a point where looking back there has been a big monumental shift in what I do. I don't want to write anything negative amount my former company, because I liked working there and still consider a lot of former coworkers to be friends. It was a good way of spending four years. However, my job right now is just so much better. I feel engaged with the work I do and with 365 days under the belt, I can say with complete disclosure that I like what I am doing.

Of course there are days of frustration, but for the most part this job is a great fit. I love the analytical work, the people and the unique experiences that come with this job. It would have been almost unbelievable a year ago for me to know that I would be traveling on a private jet to Boise, California, Chicago and Texas. The work that I do is almost completely different than the work I did at the Well.

And in my personal life things have changed even more than professionally. My wife and I have had to get used to living in Columbus, and while we still miss Minneapolis it is pretty clear that this is now home. One of the most obvious reasons for that is because we bought a house here. I feel very fortunate to have found a house in the area of the city we wanted and at a price that gives us some financial flexibility. Also, after having lived in this house for a few months now we both really just like the house. This weekend I worked on the basement and every day it feels more and more like this place is coming together.

And to announce some bigger news (that you probably already know if you are reading this) - M is pregnant. We are thrilled/blessed/excited and are looking forward to adding to our family in May. Also, we find out in 8 days the baby's gender, so that should be a great early Christmas present.

It really seems like everything is coming in place. I wish sometimes I could tell the people that doubted me or questioned my decisions that right now I can't imagine being in another spot. Life isn't perfect, but it is still pretty good.

Obama and Stats

Obama is projected to be reelected on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News. From all indications he will stay the President for the next four years. Obviously I am happy. I thought he accomplished a lot and can only hope for another four years like the previous four years. In addition if I was to get greedy I hope for more progressive steps on social issues like gay marriage. Finally, I'm hoping for a deal in place to raise taxes and cut spending to help balance the budget. I think it is possible, but will be difficult with Congress still being controlled by Republicans. My hope is that this vote was a humbling experience, but my thought is that they will probably just dig in their heels.

Besides Obama, the real winner of this election was Nate Silver. I've been a pretty ardent support of his work. I've followed his blog and read his book. I might not have been an early adopter, but I tried to at least join the bandwagon earlier on than most. That bandwagon is about to get a lot more crowded after his success in this election. The final results are being counted, but it looks like he has been very accurate. Based on his work I placed a few key bets and will cash in on the election. One particular bet was a straight up ($1 for $1) bet on Obama winning the election. When Silver predicted Obama at 91% I felt like that was too good of a deal to pass up. My only hope then and now was that I could get the dollar amount as high as possible.

In the end stats matter. Being rational matters. I don't know if I have much faith in the country (especially when people talk about moving to Canada/Brazil because of our socialist President), but I do have faith in Nate Silver, Bill Barnwell and other statisticians that back up their work. TV pundits still might not be anymore accurate, but you can get the correct information by checking out a numerous websites. Questions about Obama's "Apology Tour" can be answer by checking out PolitiFact. The answers are out there. Sometimes you have to work a little bit harder to get rid of your bias, but there should no excuses left for someone who wants the truth.

Congrats Obama on the win. It is a Pappy's whiskey night.

Election Day

Only one more day until the election, which means soon enough this blog can hopefully get back to both non-political and more frequent posts. However, until the election is over it is hard not to think about that - especially when you are surrounded by it in Ohio. This has been an interesting race between two people that could possibly would make decent Presidents. The case for Romney as I see it is something of a peculiar one. I think Romney is like John Kerry in 2004 in that people like him because he isn't the current President. The true conservatives will vote for him because they hate Obama and the moderate conservatives will vote for him because they believe he was a moderate governor. For my standpoint he strikes me as a guy who will say anything to get elected. Lower taxes! Less debt! Better national security through increased defense spending! Medicare/Social Security stay the same! Vote for Romney and you can have it all.

I really think Romney would have done better in this campaign had he stuck to core convictions (even if he doesn't have them) and offered a moderate option. The crazies on the right would vote for him regardless, but when Romney tried to pivot to the middle it seemed awkward and forced. He also missed an opportunity to explain how he would simply the tax code. Currently taxes are too complicated and it seems right in the Republican wheelhouse to go for a simple tax code. (And by simple I don't mean a flat tax.) That being written I think if Romney is elected, then Democrats will work with him and there is a chance he would be a good President. He seems to be a little bit more restrained than other Republicans (ex. W), and my hope is that he would govern more moderately than he campaigned.

For Obama it has sometimes been frustrating. He hasn't always seemed willing to fight for this election, and more seemed hopeful that people would just start acting rational and understand on their own what he has accomplished. I don't think he really respected Romney as an opponent, and became somewhat complacent. (Of course he isn't complacent in asking me to give him $5.) He has accomplished a lot of the past 4 years, but it isn't something that he always sells to the American public. One big example that he rarely (if ever) brings up is how the stock market has done in since he took office. If you remember we were at a low point in 2009 and since then stocks have had a steady climb upwards. Anybody that invests through mutual funds,  401(k), IRAs, etc are better off financially then they were four years ago. It isn't great that 7.9% are unemployed (and many more are underemployed), but that doesn't mean that the middle class that both Romney and Obama talk about so much aren't doing better. My issue with Obama (and it really shouldn't be his issue) is that I don't know if the middle class knows they are doing better.

The main complaint I've had following this election is the lack of objectivity. Maybe it was never this way, but I feel like in the past people could at least agree on the questions if not the solutions. Now the questions are muddled with talking heads from MSNBC or Fox News taking sides. It isn't like there are options out there to weed through the partisan bs, but most people either don't look for them or don't want to hear unbiased viewpoints. It angers me to hear people on the right question the validity of Nate Silver's predictions because they go against Romney. It is upsetting when people question the stimulus when 92% of economists believe that it reduced the jobless rate. It isn't ok to say that "all politicians lie" without knowing that overwhelmingly Romney lies more than Obama and that Ryan is the worst of the bunch. People mistake not being 100% certain on something as meaning there isn't any value in that subject.

Also, people have invented their own reality. In the world that some people live in it seems like Mitt Romney is the savior and that Obama is a socialist. I heard from one Republican friend that he was going to move to Brazil if Obama is elected. Enjoy living in a country with a female president, who is part of the Workers' Party. In reality Obama is the worst socialist ever (capitalism is doing fine) and it seems to me that he is slightly left on social issues, slightly right on defense (hello drone attacks and killing Osama Bin Laden) and wants to be progressive on taxes.

The issue is that people don't do the critical thinking to come to their own reasonable conclusion. Obama is terrible and there is nothing anyone can say to make them change their minds. That upsets me. The level of finality due to being close-minded is something that I find hard to understand. There are things I think (and am willing to bet on), but besides a few issues there aren't many things that I am 100% sure on. I think the stimulus was a good thing. I think saving the auto industry made sense. I'm happy with how the stock market has gone, and I think that another 4 years of Obama probably won't hurt that industry. I think he has been a fine President, who has helped repair how other countries view us after the 8 years of W. I think Romney will say whatever he wants to be President. I think Romney/Ryan stand very little chance of balancing the budget in 4-8 years by reducing tax rates by 20% and getting rid of nothing substantial besides Obamacare. I think that overall Obama has done a good job and would like to roll the dice with 4 more years. And finally I think he will win tomorrow.

Am I sure about any of this - no? I will try to keep an open mind and look at things from every angle. I hope that in this day of biased politics that it is enough.