March Madness

I feel like anybody who has ever gambled on a sporting event has a bad betting story they can tell on demand. Time to add mine to the list. Yesterday, I had a friend place a bet on BYU to win by more than *9 points. They were playing the small school of Wofford, and I thought even without Brandon Davies that the game should be a BYU blowout. The game started off slow, but by the end of the game BYU held a 14 point lead with 2 minutes to g0, which meant I had a 5 point lead on the spead. Here are the next sequence of possessions.


*The line actually started at 8 points, but moved to 9 points right before the guy placed the bet.

1. Charles Abouo (who had just missed a 3 point shot on BYU's end) fouls a three point shooter, which allows Wofford to close the margin to 11 points (2 points over the spread). If Abouo didn't go to BYU, I would think about accusing him of fixing the game.


2. After Jimmer (BYU's star guard) makes a 2 point jump shot, Wofford matches him with a jump shot of their own. Still I have a 2 point lead over the spread.


3. After BYU makes two straight free throws, Wofford continues their hot streak with another 3 pointer. That means they have scored 8 points on 3 possessions. The BYU lead is only 1 over the spread and I am getting nervous about my -9 bet.


4. With a 1 minute left they foul Jimmer, who calmly hits two free throws to push the lead to 3 points over the spread.


5. Wofford again matches these two points with a layup of their own.With only 54 seconds left the lead over the spread is down to 1.


6. Wofford fouls Jimmer, who only makes 1-2 free throws despite being a 89% free throw shooter. The lead is only 2 points over the spread.


7. Wofford comes down and doesn't waste much time (only 9 seconds) before missing a jump shot. BYU comes down with the ball and the Wofford couch decides to stop pursuing the win (it is a 11 point BYU lead) and doesn't foul BYU. On BYU's possesion Jimmer shoots a ridiculous 3 with 9 seconds still left on the shot clock and about Wofford gains possesion with about 10 seconds left.


8. Wofford then brings the ball up with a player who almost dribbles the ball out of bounds. He starts heading towards the basket, which means I am thinking a layup will be next and my bet will be a push at -9. However, BYU's defense steps up and the Wofford player throws the ball out to a teammate who is standing alone at the 3 point line. With 2 seconds left the Wofford player shoots a 3 pointer that cuts the BYU lead from 11 to 8. This is just enough for BYU to not push or cover the 9 point line.

This was my "kids you shouldn't gamble" moment. This was my bad beat. It got even worse when I checked to see who shot the ball. I was expecting it was a good three point shooter since Wofford is 9th in the country in 3 point shooting percentage. Imagine my shock when I saw the shooting numbers from the player who took that last shot. He was a senior from Cincinnati named Terry Martin his his entire career before the BYU game he had attempted three 3 pointers and made none. In the 2011 kenpom scouting report Terry Martin doesn't even appear in the "nearly invisible" category. He was playing in his last game yesterday and in the 1794 minutes before that last shot he had never once made a 3 pointer. Yesterday, his 3 pointer was enough to turn a gambling win into a gambling loss. Those type of moments are what should serve as a public service announcement on why you shouldn't gamble.