Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Obama and Stats

Obama is projected to be reelected on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News. From all indications he will stay the President for the next four years. Obviously I am happy. I thought he accomplished a lot and can only hope for another four years like the previous four years. In addition if I was to get greedy I hope for more progressive steps on social issues like gay marriage. Finally, I'm hoping for a deal in place to raise taxes and cut spending to help balance the budget. I think it is possible, but will be difficult with Congress still being controlled by Republicans. My hope is that this vote was a humbling experience, but my thought is that they will probably just dig in their heels.

Besides Obama, the real winner of this election was Nate Silver. I've been a pretty ardent support of his work. I've followed his blog and read his book. I might not have been an early adopter, but I tried to at least join the bandwagon earlier on than most. That bandwagon is about to get a lot more crowded after his success in this election. The final results are being counted, but it looks like he has been very accurate. Based on his work I placed a few key bets and will cash in on the election. One particular bet was a straight up ($1 for $1) bet on Obama winning the election. When Silver predicted Obama at 91% I felt like that was too good of a deal to pass up. My only hope then and now was that I could get the dollar amount as high as possible.

In the end stats matter. Being rational matters. I don't know if I have much faith in the country (especially when people talk about moving to Canada/Brazil because of our socialist President), but I do have faith in Nate Silver, Bill Barnwell and other statisticians that back up their work. TV pundits still might not be anymore accurate, but you can get the correct information by checking out a numerous websites. Questions about Obama's "Apology Tour" can be answer by checking out PolitiFact. The answers are out there. Sometimes you have to work a little bit harder to get rid of your bias, but there should no excuses left for someone who wants the truth.

Congrats Obama on the win. It is a Pappy's whiskey night.

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